Metro Manila could experience an earthquake more intense than what was felt in Haiti last January 13, with an intensity of 7.3 on the Richter Scale, according to a study made in 2002. The Metropolitan Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study or MMEIRS cites “many research studies (indicating) that active phases of the (West) Valley Faults (formerly the Marikina Valley Faults) are approaching and that the estimated magnitude will be around 7 or more.” MMEIRS also raised the possibility of an intensity more than 7 and could reach up to intensity 9, which could be “devastating.”
A) Map showing the locations of the east and west Marikina Valley faults, which strike through the metropolitan Manila area (Metro Manila, light shading) of central Luzon. The Maislap trench site is on a northeast-trending splay of the west Marikina Valley fault in the northern part of the Marikina Valley. B) Map of the trench site, showing fault traces and trench and stream exposures (Source: USGS)
According to another article written in 2005 on Science Daily, scientists have estimated that major earthquakes occur on average every 50 years in the Caribbean which includes Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the island of Hispaniola, shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The article also mentions a dozen major earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have occurred in the area in the past 500 years. With earthquakes happening at that frequency, scientists say it is not a question of if it will happen but when.
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